The five things that have moved Thai rice prices, read by the same rules every week: El Niño, the Thai 5% export price, the paddy price, the baht, and India's export policy.
Week of 2 Nov 2026 · updated automatically every day · computed 2 Nov 2026
3 of 5 signals point to higher Thai rice prices.
A count of signals, not a price forecast. They do not carry equal weight; each card says why.
+2.16 °C
Very strong El Niño · JAS 2026 · previous season +1.80
+0.5 or above is El Niño, which usually means less rain in Thailand and a smaller off-season crop that follows. Over 1970–2025 the World Bank found rice prices six months after El Niño months ran more than 10 percentage points above neutral months.
$492/t
FOB Bangkok · ฿16,617/t · 28 Oct 2026
The main reference price for Thai rice. A move of 3% or more over 4 weeks counts as a signal.
Full chart on the prices page · Thai Rice Exporters Association
฿9,400/t
National average · 2 Nov 2026
Paddy is trading at 57% of the 5% export price, both in baht. When this share climbs fast, mills are competing for paddy.
33.76 THB per USD
2 Nov 2026
Up means a weaker baht: the same dollar export price is worth more baht, which can lift Thai paddy prices. A stronger baht does the opposite. A move of 2% or more over 4 weeks counts as a signal.
ECB via Frankfurter
Exports open
Checked 2 Nov 2026
No rice export restrictions in force. USDA expects record Indian exports of about 25 million tonnes in 2026/27 even with output down about 4.6%, and government stocks are around three times the buffer norm. The warning sign to watch is Indian retail rice prices: they have started rising on El Niño talk, and in July 2023 India banned exports when domestic prices rose, despite large stocks.
India ships about 40% of the world rice trade. Its July 2023 export ban lifted world rice prices by about 35%.
FEWS NET, 2026–27 El Niño food security impacts (6 Oct 2026)
For information only. Not trading advice.